Last year was tough for African leaders: one resigned, one was sacked, two were overthrown in coups, two were defeated in elections, and three died in office. Leadership succession is an issue also in Angola, and it will be hot in Madagascar, Kenya and Zimbabwe in 2013.

When pro-growth policies and property arrangements are closely associated with just one leader, the demise of that individual is likely to induce damaging uncertainty in investors. So how do states avoid the succession trap?

Currently there are three countries in Africa that have maintained high growth for more than a decade but have yet to experience a political succession: Angola, Rwanda and Uganda.

To avoid the succession trap, political and economic actors need to devise institutions that can supply credible commitments for investors in a context of transition.

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Regional integration in Africa has long featured as a potential solution for the manifold problems inherited from the fragmentation of the imperialist scramble.

A lesson from many efforts is that politically inspired schemes fail, while schemes with limited and specific functions may work. The AU and many regional schemes with economic objectives are examples.

The issue addresses in this book is far more ambitious than simple functional integration. The objective is regional integration within a democratic system of government that recognises ethnic and cultural diversity and guarantees equal citizenship rights for all.

This is a praiseworthy collective effort to advance the debate on a topic that is much discussed but little analysed. The authors point to the immense social change that needs to take place before lasting integration can take place in the Horn.

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The analytical and constructive article (below) by Graciana del Castillo suggests how to promote economic development that contributes to building peace in conflict-affected countries such as Liberia.

It rightly emphasises the urgency of promoting inclusive growth in Liberia by developing the domestic economy, strengthening its linkages with the export-oriented enclave economy and increasing the social contributions of the latter.

However, the Reconstruction Zones (RZs) proposal is not entirely convincing; both its rationale and feasibility have to be explained in the specific Liberian political economy context.

The inclusive market development approach may provide avenues for both sustainable structural change and for short-term results building on ongoing activities by private market actors.

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Ever since the 2005 election with its success for the opposition, the regime has taken a hard line with increasingly harsh oppression. There are armed rebel groups in the South-East, but they are divided and marginal.

A substantial discontent among the Ethiopian Muslims could bring a very different threat to the regime. The Muslims are about one third of the population; to challenge this group could have far-reaching consequences.

The Muslim protest movement is not only some angry young men. They are young and old, women and men. They can spread the word and have access to information from others in a way that had been hitherto unknown in authoritarian Ethiopia.

The heavy-handedness and insensitivity of the government risk radicalizing the movement and open up for consequences that could threaten the cohesion of the country.

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The experience and lessons of the last two decades have shown that ignoring the key differences between the economics of peace and the economics of development has been a major reason why countries relapse into conflict.

This article briefly analyses such differences and their important implications for effective policymaking in war-torn countries, and against this background, it makes recommendations for the creation of reconstruction zones (RZ) in Liberia.

Reconstruction zones would have two distinct but linked areas to ensure synergies between them—an export-oriented reconstruction zone and a local production reconstruction zone.

The export RZ would consist of any existing agricultural or mining foreign concession. The local RZ would focus on rural development and produce agricultural goods, food, light manufacturing and services for the domestic market, including for the concessions.

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In a significant political development, President Jacob Zuma opened the Steve Bantu Biko Heritage Centre in King Williams Town, in the Eastern Cape.

The ANC government deserves national applause for doing what it should have done a long time ago: honouring the legendary Black Consciousness visionary and icon.

Since 1994 the ANC has been accused of being myopic and self-serving in honouring men and women who have played a pivotal role in the struggle.

After more than a decade of accusations and allegations that government name changes, monument building and memorial projects are reserved only for ANC members, the new Biko Centre is a welcome development worthy of acknowledgement and celebration.

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When South Sudan became independent last year, the population had great expectations on the benefits of freedom. They are suffering from conflict, corruption, illiteracy, and lack of roads, schools, clinics and jobs.

These are all enormous obstacles for forming a new society with its own institutions. But most of Sudan’s oil deposits accrued to South Sudan at partition, which can be used to finance state expenditures.

The lasting armed conflict with Sudan has dominated the first year of independence. No oil has been produced since January. Now the two governments have reached agreement to restart production and exports.

In the short run, the oil stoppage has created turmoil. But perhaps this will make South Sudan recognize its vulnerability and seriously embark on diversification, taking advantage of its vast fertile but idle lands.

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Somalia has ended 20 year-long era of transitional and interim administrations that spawned statelessness, protracted conflicts, political vacuum and warlordism.

The aim for post-transitional government is mainly to let Somalia stand on its own – politically and militarily – with a four-year mandate to structure and lay the groundwork for prosperity.

Somali leaders are to blame for inviting external actors to settle internal disputes. Neighboring countries must agree on a coherent and constructive strategy for stabilizing Somalia, one that respects its sovereignty and forswears interventions.

The greater international donor community should support Somalia’s plan for stability, governance and development. Its interest is a stable Somalia at peace with itself and the world. This means departing from the securitization approach to more long term economic development.

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The African Union has just installed a new leader: Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma from South Africa. In her installation speech, she declared that the AU will be more proactive in resolving conflicts.

There are in particular two issues where she is expected to strengthen AU: (i) in coming down hard on the ineffective AU bureaucracy and (ii) in focusing on the financial challenges facing the union.

With regard to both defence and development policies, Denmark and other Nordic countries give high priority to secure peace and stability on the African continent.

Now is the time to focus on AU, when it may achieve a new importance. Its role in DRC and Mali will be a crucial test, not least for future decisions about Nordic support for peace activities in Africa.

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Zenawi, like many Big Men, rose to power through informal networks; he maintained his control by pumping money, opportunity, jobs, and any other kind of reward into these informal structures by pillaging the formal state, or through strict application of military against opposition.

For its part, the informal networks supported Zenawi so long as the wealth and opportunity flowed. However, importantly, with the death of Zenawi the informal network, of which he was previously the head, is now shifting and someone must come to the fore to fill this void.

Although Zenawi’s successor has been installed, it remains to be seen which of the second fiddles in the now shifting Ethiopian power structures are vying to ascend as the next Big Man. No doubt there are second fiddles waiting eagerly for a bigger piece of the action.

Commentators of African affairs would do well to observe how Ethiopia recovers from this political theater, and not only note who replaces Zenawi but how they ascend to that role.

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